Investment journal 16.8.2019: Glaston exit

6.8.2019 Sold all Glaston @ 1.19-1.275

I sold half of my position, which was originally quite big 9 %, already few weeks ago @ 1,275 eur because I lost conviction on the trade. I had just realized 50% loss on CAFOM, and decided to haircut positions across the board as I lost some confidence.

Now I sold rest of the position @ 1,19-1.20 eur as it hit my mental 1,2 eur stop. Good thing was that I didn’t think when it hit the stop, I just sold. It was surprisingly easy emotionally, given how much it had come down from the 1,33 eur or so peak.

The emotional easiness might coincide with the fact that it was down day and turbulent market, though.

The stop level hit, and the market turbulence for the day, both pointed to same emotional direction; get out of the pain. So that was probably the real reason the decision was easy, not some magic artificial emotional toughness created by the stop levels.

I think I sold the position at bottom the day, at middle of the day, so there might have been other people panicking during lunch hours too.

Overall profit for the 1,5 month or so holding period was 8,5 % which is very good, annualized. I’m pretty happy with the trade. The stock high was 1,33 eur or something, so quite a lot of profit was left on the table, but still happy.

I didn’t know anything about the business and the research for the position was 30-60 min.

8.8.2019 After reaction

So Glaston was out with Q2 report today. It was ok, for what I understood. The stock went from 1.2 eur to 1.27 eur.

Two days ago, I sold my stock as it stopped and market was in full panic. I guess market was expecting lot worse and now there was a relief rally. I was again the weakest hand (?). After I had sold, there was nobody selling, so the stock went up. Can’t win every trade but this feels bad.

But the truth is that I didn’t know the situation and business at all so I had no business in keeping the position. So from that point I feel ok.

Funny thing is that I read the report and I had no idea what the market reaction should be. First it went up to 1.25 then back down to 1.185 and then shot up to 1.28. I was not only one uncertain how one should react. Or someone wanted out as there was liquidity.

Anyway, if I would have not stopped, I could have sold my position at 7% higher than two days ago… I sold absolute low for a while, not good. I just panic when there is market storm and I’m not sure of the fundamentals.

9.8.2019 Am I becoming a trader

I’m more confused than yesterday. Glaston is now backing of yesterday gains to 1.22 eur, from 1.28. Market has hard time figuring how to react to yesterday’s results and the world around.

The drop also coincides with Inderes reducing target price from 1.7 eur to 1.45 eur. Hot money seems to be driving the stock currently.

Ps. Currently the stock is at 1.17 so the sale seems to have been good decision so far, but who knows of the tomorrow…

Edit 16.8.2019 22:55: Streamlined the font and fixed some errors. Wrote & accidentally published the first version on my phone. Sorry for the inconvenience for guys reading the first version with lot of errors…

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